← Back to fixtures

Brighton vs Man United

Sat 02 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 19 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brighton win: 32.2%

Draw: 22.3%

Man United win: 45.5%

Predicted: Man United

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.99

More corners: Brighton (53.8% home / 46.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Man United

Yes

Probability Man United wins or draws: 65.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Man United Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 32%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Man United win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.